METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
A former champion on a two-fight losing run meets a submission specialist rated a perfect 10.0 who has finished everyone he has beaten.
Brandon Moreno is the most accomplished fighter on this card and the model does not care. His composite reads 52.8, his momentum has fallen to 54.0, and the reason is on the record: a second-round knockout defeat to Tatsuro Taira in December 2025 and a five-round decision loss to Lone'er Kavanagh in February. Two defeats in a row, and the first of them the sort that leaves a mark on a 32-year-old …
Moreno (23-10-2) has lost two in a row — knocked out by Tatsuro Taira in the second round in December 2025 and outpointed by Lone'er Kavanagh over five in February. Before that he beat Steve Erceg and Amir Albazi on the cards. At 32 his 46.8 quality-of-victory reflects a decade against the division's best, but his 66.0 chin rating is now the softest part of him.
Morales (15-2) has submitted both opponents since returning to the promotion — Matt Schnell inside three minutes in November 2025 and Alibi Idiris in the second round in August 2025. Every win in the recorded sample has come inside the distance, giving him a finish rate of 1.00. His two defeats both date from 2018; the recorded sample is five fights across eight years, so the 75.6 composite is built on limited evidence.
A 10.0 submission score against a former champion who has never been submitted in his last five
Morales' 1.20 striking and 1.20 volume — if the takedowns fail there is nothing else
Moreno has fought five rounds four times in his last five; the mileage is real at 32
Morales' 69.3 quality-of-victory is the highest number in the pack despite only five recorded fights
Moreno's 66.0 chin rating after the Taira knockout in December 2025
Morales' rating rests on five recorded fights spanning eight years — the 75.6 composite could be badly overstated
Moreno's takedown defence and scrambling are the exact skills the pack cannot measure well, and they have carried him through worse matchups than this
This Fight — Statistics
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown