Islam Makhachev vs Dustin Poirier — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

★ Championship Bout · Lightweight

UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier

Newark, USA

1 Jun 2024

Lightweight

55%

Makhachev

45%

Poirier

Win Probability

Submission

Round 5 · 2:42

Islam Makhachev

28 – 1

5'10"70" reachSouthpaw35 yrs17-fight win streakWell-Rounded

CFR 74

Dustin Poirier

"The Diamond"

30 – 10

Well-Rounded2-fight slide37 yrsSouthpaw72" reach5'9"

CFR 61

★ Official Result

Islam MakhachevwinsSubmissionR5 · 2:42

def. Dustin Poirier · UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Makhachev

→

Actual result

Makhachev wins

Submission · R5

Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Makhachev at 55% vs Poirier at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 13 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Poirier has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

MakhachevPoirier

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Makhachev

Poirier

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'10"+

Height

5'9"

70"

Reach

+72"

35+

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

Makhachev

Poirier

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

73.9

61.4

69.4

Performance Avg

58.2

Quality of Victory

100

Momentum Score

100

Makhachev

Poirier

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

3.6

/ 10

6.0

/ 10

7.1

Style: Pressure

6.6

5.0

Style: Volume

4.0

3 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

10 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

17Distance9

1Clinch2

0Ground0

Makhachev

Poirier

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

4.5

/ 10

2.2

/ 10

3.1

Wrestling Style (/10)

1.6

4.4

Submission Style (/10)

1.8

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Makhachev

Poirier

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

Moderate

Verdict

KO risk

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R1.0 stoppage

KO round context

Avg R1.3 stoppage

17 fights ago

Last KO loss

3 fights ago

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

19/29 fights

Chin rating based on

32/40 fights

Makhachev

Poirier

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

100

17-fight 🔥 win streak

Current form

2-fight 📉 slide

W · Dec · R5

W · Sub · R1

W · Sub · R5

W · KO · R1

Last 5

L · Dec · R5

L · Sub · R5

W · KO · R2

L · KO · R2

W · Sub · R3

Makhachev

Poirier

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

61%

64%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Makhachev

Poirier

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

3.6

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

6.0

4.5

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

2.2

3.1

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

1.6

4.4

Submission

Submission attack frequency

1.8

7.1

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

6.6

5.0

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

4.0

Makhachev

Strike Zones

Poirier

Makhachev

Attacking

18 landed

Absorbing

11 absorbed

Poirier

Attacking

11 landed

Absorbing

18 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Makhachev targets the head (94% of attacks) — Poirier absorbs 94% of strikes there

🎯Poirier targets the head (82% of attacks) — Makhachev absorbs 82% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Makhachev

RND

Poirier

0/0R00/0

Makhachev · Last 5

W · Dec · R5

Ian Machado Garry

Decision

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry · 2026-08

W · Dec · R5

Jack Della Maddalena

Decision

UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11

W · Sub · R1

Renato Moicano

Submission

UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01

W · Sub · R5

Dustin Poirier

Submission

UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06

W · KO · R1

Alexander Volkanovski

KO/TKO

UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10

Poirier · Last 5

L · Dec · R5

Max Holloway

Decision

UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07

L · Sub · R5

Islam Makhachev

Submission

UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06

W · KO · R2

Benoit Saint Denis

KO/TKO

UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03

L · KO · R2

Justin Gaethje

KO/TKO

UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07

W · Sub · R3

Michael Chandler

Submission

UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11

News & Media

Islam Makhachev · Dustin Poirier

← Back to fights