METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh
Mexico City, Mexico
28 Feb 2026
Flyweight
VS
50%
Moreno
50%
Kavanagh
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Lone'er KavanaghwinsDecisionR5 · 5:00
def. Brandon Moreno · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Moreno
→
Actual result
Kavanagh wins
Decision · R5
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Moreno at 50% vs Kavanagh at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Moreno has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Risk flags
Moreno's chin rating of 66 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Kavanagh has a chin rating of 66 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
MorenoKavanagh
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Moreno
Kavanagh
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"+
Height
5'6"
70"+
Reach
67"
32
Age
+27
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Moreno
Kavanagh
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
52.2
51.7
52.2
Performance Avg
46.9
45
Quality of Victory
34
54
Momentum Score
78
Moreno
Kavanagh
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.9
/ 10
3.8
/ 10
4.8
Style: Pressure
3.8
5.3
Style: Volume
7.3
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
5
3
Body
4
2
Leg
3
RangeRange
6Distance11
5Clinch1
0Ground0
Moreno
Kavanagh
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.2
/ 10
1.8
/ 10
2.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.3
2.5
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
3
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Moreno
Kavanagh
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
66
66
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/33 fights
Chin rating based on
6/12 fights
Moreno
Kavanagh
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
54
78
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Moreno
Kavanagh
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
42%
25%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Moreno
Kavanagh
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.8
3.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.8
2.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.8
5.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.3
MorenoKavanagh
Strike Zones
Moreno
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedKavanagh
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Moreno targets the head (55% of attacks) — Kavanagh absorbs 55% of strikes there
🎯Kavanagh targets the head (42% of attacks) — Moreno absorbs 42% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Moreno
RND
Kavanagh
0/0R00/0
Moreno · Last 5
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