METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
Jacksonville, USA
9 May 2020
Featherweight
VS
50%
Stephens
50%
Kattar
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 2:49
★ Official Result
Calvin KattarwinsKO/TKOR2 · 2:49
def. Jeremy Stephens · UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Stephens
→
Actual result
Kattar wins
KO/TKO · R2
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Stephens at 50% vs Kattar at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Risk flags
Stephens's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Kattar has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
StephensKattar
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Stephens
Kattar
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'11"
71"
Reach
+72"
40
Age
+38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Stephens
Kattar
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.0
44.3
41.1
Performance Avg
44.4
40
Quality of Victory
43
76
Momentum Score
33
Stephens
Kattar
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.5
/ 10
6.7
/ 10
4.5
Style: Pressure
5.4
4.6
Style: Volume
4.4
7 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
4 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
17
2
Body
5
7
Leg
4
RangeRange
16Distance21
1Clinch1
0Ground4
Stephens
Kattar
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.1
/ 10
1.0
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Stephens
Kattar
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
64
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
4
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
36/52 fights
Chin rating based on
15/33 fights
Stephens
Kattar
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
76
33
7-fight 📉 slide
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R5
Stephens
Kattar
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
47%
57%
7
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
0
8
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Stephens
Kattar
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.7
1.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.0
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.4
4.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.4
StephensKattar
Strike Zones
Stephens
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
26 absorbedKattar
Attacking
26 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Stephens targets the head (47% of attacks) — Kattar absorbs 47% of strikes there
🎯Kattar targets the head (65% of attacks) — Stephens absorbs 65% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Stephens
RND
Kattar
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Stephens · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
King GreenSubmission
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Mason JonesDecision
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L · Sub · R1
Mateusz GamrotSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Moises · 2021-07
L · KO · R2
Calvin KattarKO/TKO
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · Dec · R3
Yair RodriguezDecision
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weidman · 2019-10
Kattar · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Steve GarciaDecision
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L · Dec · R3
Youssef ZalalDecision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · 2025-02
L · Dec · R3
Aljamain SterlingDecision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
L · KO · R2
Arnold AllenKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · 2022-10
L · Dec · R5
Josh EmmettDecision
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett · 2022-06