METRICS GUIDE
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All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Two first-round submissions, three UFC fights between them, and a 17-point rating gap built almost entirely out of an 81-second win over the lowest-rated man in the division.
This is the hardest fight on the card to write honestly, because between them these two men have three recorded UFC appearances and two of those lasted under four minutes. Start with the thing that will mislead anyone reading the ratings cold. Noah Gugnon carries an 80.2 composite, the higher of the two by seventeen points, and it rests on one fight. On 1 August he took a short-notice debut and s…
Steele (8-1) is 31, American, and has two recorded UFC fights. Composite 63.2 with a 52.4 performance average — the gap says the rating leans on his most recent night. That night was 2 May, when he heel-hooked Dom Mar Fan (71.9) at 3:56 of the first, comfortably the best win either man in this bout owns. His debut, on 8 February 2025, was a three-round decision loss to Rongzhu (48.1) that took Fight of the Night; going the distance there with no stoppage is the entirety of his 98.0 chin rating. Style scores read 8.0 grappling, 5.6 wrestling, 10.0 submission, 8.5 pressure against 1.0 striking and 1.0 volume — a shape produced by a sample consisting of one first-round submission, not a scouting verdict. Finish rate 100 per cent, quality-of-victory 54.0. Went 6-0 in Fury FC, took the Contender Series contract in 2024 by stopping Chasen Blair with a body shot, and withdrew from an August bout with an injury, so this is his first appearance in nearly six months. Height 175.3cm, reach 180.3cm, orthodox.
Gugnon (10-2) turned 26 on 18 October and has one recorded UFC fight: a rear-naked choke of Milos Janicic at 1:21 on 1 August, taken on short notice. His 80.2 composite, 72.4 performance average, 100.0 momentum and 100.0 chin rating all come from that single eighty-one-second result, and Janicic rates 7.0 — 41 points below the lowest-rated opponent on Steele's record. The 100.0 chin in particular is untested rather than proven. His style profile (8.0 grappling, 5.6 wrestling, 10.0 submission, 10.0 pressure, 2.0 striking, 2.0 volume) is near-identical to Steele's because both are generated from a lone first-round submission. Outside the promotion he opened 4-0, lost two straight, then won two regional bouts in 2024 and three consecutive first-round finishes in Ares FC — a knockout of Ioan Harris, an elbow stoppage of Adrian Prisceanu, and a win over Bruno Matos in April. Finish rate 100 per cent, quality-of-victory 54.0. Height 180.3cm, reach 180.3cm, orthodox.
Gugnon's 80.2 composite rests on one fight: an 81-second choke of Milos Janicic, rated 7.0
Steele's best win — a first-round heel hook of Dom Mar Fan (71.9) — is the strongest result either man owns
The two style profiles are nearly identical because both are generated from a single first-round submission
Both men carry 10.0 submission scores and 100 per cent finish rates; this is very likely decided on the floor
Steele's 98.0 chin is earned over fifteen minutes with Rongzhu; Gugnon's 100.0 covers eighty-one seconds
Steele withdrew from an August bout injured — first fight since 2 May, second layoff in eighteen months
Gugnon is five years younger, five centimetres taller, and has identical reach at 180.3cm
Gugnon had three straight first-round finishes in Ares FC before taking his debut on short notice
Three recorded UFC fights between them, two of which lasted under four minutes — every rating here is a small sample
Picking against a 17-point composite gap is a correction to that sample, not a confident read
Gugnon's unbeaten UFC record and three prior first-round finishes may reflect real quality the model cannot yet price
Steele's 52.4 performance average sits eleven points under his composite, so the rating leans on one night
Steele's injury withdrawal in August is unexplained and he has now had two long layoffs in eighteen months
Neither man has shown the model a third round, so nothing about a long fight is measurable here
This Fight — Statistics
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Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown